Normalcy Bias
Water gushes over New Orleans' levee
Normalcy bias refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. They tend to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. They assume that since a disaster has never occurred that it never will. This often results in them failing to adequately prepare for a disaster.
Normalcy bias also renders many unable to cope with a disaster once it occurs because folks who struggle with this mental state have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. They will tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic manner possible. They will seize on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
Consider, for example, the reactions of people in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina descended upon them. Even when it became obvious that the levee system was going to collapse, tens of thousands of them refused to leave their homes, even though they were directly in the line of the oncoming waves of water. None of them had ever seen something that bad before and simply could not bring themselves to believe it COULD happen. So nearly 2,000 of them died.
Today is the anniversary of the attack on the twin towers in New York and the attempt on the Pentagon. Our security failed that day because of normalcy bias. We’d come through the first and second wars and the long cold war almost unscathed here in CONUS. It never occurred to us to consider the bombs flying over our heads every day. As a result, at least 2,985 people died including:
Let me give you one more example of the way normalcy bias can skew our view of the world and blind even the most intelligent, education and well-informed people. I just read an article about a supercomputer that has been designed to predict wars and revolutions. It scans millions of media articles, looking for two things: geographic and emotive clues. It looks for key words like "angry, sad, frightened, happy, successful" etc and overlays them on a map. The more similar emotive words it finds in a geographic location, the more intense that particular mood is perceived to be in that country or city. Using this method, it successfully predicted the fall of the Egyptian regime of Hosni Mubarak when scholars who'd studied Egypt's political scene for thirty years missed it. Why did these intelligent men miss it? For thirty years they'd watched President Mubarak survive pretty much everything thrown at him. They were conditioned to believe he was unbeatable. The computer simply looked at the facts. It watched those storm clouds rising and said in effect, "He's toast."
We must not succumb to “normalcy bias”. We must not simply refuse to see the evidence that’s right in front of us, simply because we’ve never experienced such a thing before. I would like you to watch a short video clip.
It does not matter that the US has been the world’s most powerful country for nearly 100 years or that the US-based petrodollar has been the world’s currency for more than 50 years. Though most Americans cannot fathom any other condition, these privileges can be snatched out from under us very quickly.
Simply consider the fact that already 42 million Americans are using food stamps. That’s 13% of the population, up 17.5% from last year. The number of Americans using food stamps has steadily increased every month for 19 months straight. According to MSN Money, approximately 43% of Americans spend more than they earn every single year. Where the government’s debt sits at 94% of national revenue, the average US household debt sits at an amazing 107% of personal income.[1] How ironic for the people to be criticizing the government debt! You get the leadership you deserve.
The result? Twenty American cities (i.e. Ann Arbor, Fresno, Sacramento, Oakland, San Diego, Reno, Portland, Seattle, Sierra Vista, Chattanooga, Columbus, Athens, Nashville, Huntsville, Camden, Newark, Lakewood, Lowell, Providence, St. Petersburg) as well as Toronto, Canada, have hundreds and in some cases thousands who live in Depression-era-esque shanty towns and tent cities.
Normalcy bias can affect us in many different ways, whether it is the collapse of a levee, a terrorist attack, the collapse of our economy, the collapse of our antiquated electrical grid or global climate change.
[1] http://money.msn.com/mutual-fund/americans-more-in-debt-than-uncle-sam-usnews.aspx?ucsort=1
Normalcy bias also renders many unable to cope with a disaster once it occurs because folks who struggle with this mental state have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. They will tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic manner possible. They will seize on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
Consider, for example, the reactions of people in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina descended upon them. Even when it became obvious that the levee system was going to collapse, tens of thousands of them refused to leave their homes, even though they were directly in the line of the oncoming waves of water. None of them had ever seen something that bad before and simply could not bring themselves to believe it COULD happen. So nearly 2,000 of them died.
Today is the anniversary of the attack on the twin towers in New York and the attempt on the Pentagon. Our security failed that day because of normalcy bias. We’d come through the first and second wars and the long cold war almost unscathed here in CONUS. It never occurred to us to consider the bombs flying over our heads every day. As a result, at least 2,985 people died including:
- 19 terrorists
- 2,966 victims
Let me give you one more example of the way normalcy bias can skew our view of the world and blind even the most intelligent, education and well-informed people. I just read an article about a supercomputer that has been designed to predict wars and revolutions. It scans millions of media articles, looking for two things: geographic and emotive clues. It looks for key words like "angry, sad, frightened, happy, successful" etc and overlays them on a map. The more similar emotive words it finds in a geographic location, the more intense that particular mood is perceived to be in that country or city. Using this method, it successfully predicted the fall of the Egyptian regime of Hosni Mubarak when scholars who'd studied Egypt's political scene for thirty years missed it. Why did these intelligent men miss it? For thirty years they'd watched President Mubarak survive pretty much everything thrown at him. They were conditioned to believe he was unbeatable. The computer simply looked at the facts. It watched those storm clouds rising and said in effect, "He's toast."
We must not succumb to “normalcy bias”. We must not simply refuse to see the evidence that’s right in front of us, simply because we’ve never experienced such a thing before. I would like you to watch a short video clip.
It does not matter that the US has been the world’s most powerful country for nearly 100 years or that the US-based petrodollar has been the world’s currency for more than 50 years. Though most Americans cannot fathom any other condition, these privileges can be snatched out from under us very quickly.
Simply consider the fact that already 42 million Americans are using food stamps. That’s 13% of the population, up 17.5% from last year. The number of Americans using food stamps has steadily increased every month for 19 months straight. According to MSN Money, approximately 43% of Americans spend more than they earn every single year. Where the government’s debt sits at 94% of national revenue, the average US household debt sits at an amazing 107% of personal income.[1] How ironic for the people to be criticizing the government debt! You get the leadership you deserve.
The result? Twenty American cities (i.e. Ann Arbor, Fresno, Sacramento, Oakland, San Diego, Reno, Portland, Seattle, Sierra Vista, Chattanooga, Columbus, Athens, Nashville, Huntsville, Camden, Newark, Lakewood, Lowell, Providence, St. Petersburg) as well as Toronto, Canada, have hundreds and in some cases thousands who live in Depression-era-esque shanty towns and tent cities.
Normalcy bias can affect us in many different ways, whether it is the collapse of a levee, a terrorist attack, the collapse of our economy, the collapse of our antiquated electrical grid or global climate change.
[1] http://money.msn.com/mutual-fund/americans-more-in-debt-than-uncle-sam-usnews.aspx?ucsort=1
Introduction
Plaque at Jonestown over hundreds of bodies
George Santayana said that
"Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it."
The German philosopher G.W.F. Hegel (1770-1831) once cynically commented,
"What experience and history teach us is this: that people and government never have learned anything from history or acted on principles deduced from it."
Or as Winston Churchill said,
"The one thing we have learned from history is that we don't learn from history."
In regards to the collapse of the American empire, the most common refrain I hear is: "It can't happen here," or "Our country is different." The reality is that nations are born and die just like individuals. Their longevity may exceed the average person's lifespan, but the reality remains that nations also eventually die.
The most successful nations or empires go through a general life cycle of stages as they start, expand, mature, decline, and collapse. In his book The End of Christendom, Malcolm Muggeridge makes this powerful observation. He says:
I conclude that civilizations, like every other human creation, wax and wane. By the nature of the case there can never be a lasting civilization anymore than there can be a lasting spring or lasting happiness in an individual life or a lasting stability in a society. It's in the nature of man and of all that he constructs to perish, and it must ever be so. The world is full of the debris of past civilizations and others are known to have existed which have not left any debris behind them but have just disappeared.”
He goes on to say that
...whatever their ideology may be, from the Garden of Eden onwards such dreams of lasting felicity have cropped up and no doubt always will. But the realization is impossible for the simple reason that a fallen creature like man though capable of conceiving perfection and aspiring after it, is in himself and in his works forever imperfect. Thus he is fated to exist in the no man's land between the perfection he can conceive and the imperfection that characterizes his own nature and everything he does.”
"Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it."
The German philosopher G.W.F. Hegel (1770-1831) once cynically commented,
"What experience and history teach us is this: that people and government never have learned anything from history or acted on principles deduced from it."
Or as Winston Churchill said,
"The one thing we have learned from history is that we don't learn from history."
In regards to the collapse of the American empire, the most common refrain I hear is: "It can't happen here," or "Our country is different." The reality is that nations are born and die just like individuals. Their longevity may exceed the average person's lifespan, but the reality remains that nations also eventually die.
The most successful nations or empires go through a general life cycle of stages as they start, expand, mature, decline, and collapse. In his book The End of Christendom, Malcolm Muggeridge makes this powerful observation. He says:
I conclude that civilizations, like every other human creation, wax and wane. By the nature of the case there can never be a lasting civilization anymore than there can be a lasting spring or lasting happiness in an individual life or a lasting stability in a society. It's in the nature of man and of all that he constructs to perish, and it must ever be so. The world is full of the debris of past civilizations and others are known to have existed which have not left any debris behind them but have just disappeared.”
He goes on to say that
...whatever their ideology may be, from the Garden of Eden onwards such dreams of lasting felicity have cropped up and no doubt always will. But the realization is impossible for the simple reason that a fallen creature like man though capable of conceiving perfection and aspiring after it, is in himself and in his works forever imperfect. Thus he is fated to exist in the no man's land between the perfection he can conceive and the imperfection that characterizes his own nature and everything he does.”
Stages of life in nations
As I said, all the most successful nations go through a series of stages. The unsuccessful ones trip up at a lower stage and don’t even get to go through all the stages. They fail to make the cut. So the stages I’m describing here are of man’s greatest achievements; man’s greatest, most successful political, economic and social works.
I’ve broken the cycles down to seven stages. Each stage is described four ways: A) economically, B) Socially, C) Culturally, and D) Spiritually.
Each stage helps to lead to the next as the values of the empire’s people change over time. Military, political, economic, and religious developments all influence an empire’s people to act and believe differently over time.
At the end, I give two more sections, Family Decline and Sin. The last two, though also depicted in seven stages, don’t describe the entire lifespan but rather the “latter days” of the decline and fall of the nation and are therefore kept separate.
I’ve broken the cycles down to seven stages. Each stage is described four ways: A) economically, B) Socially, C) Culturally, and D) Spiritually.
Each stage helps to lead to the next as the values of the empire’s people change over time. Military, political, economic, and religious developments all influence an empire’s people to act and believe differently over time.
At the end, I give two more sections, Family Decline and Sin. The last two, though also depicted in seven stages, don’t describe the entire lifespan but rather the “latter days” of the decline and fall of the nation and are therefore kept separate.
Stage One - Conception
A. Economically: Good money backed by precious metals
Every major empire has gone through a seven stage life cycle which can be tracked by its currency. When a country or empire is in early stages of growth, it starts out with sound money. The currency is usually gold, or something that is backed by gold or another similar asset or metal.
B. Socially: Mixture – ideas are exchanged at borders or loci
Civilizations are born at the intersections of societies. Where rules and customs are understood, as in the core of a social region, the members of that society have no incentive to change; in fact, social pressure tends to prevent change.
Where differing cultures intersect at their peripheries, however, it is not so clear what rules should be followed. For example, when the marriage customs of two societies differ, and intermarriage begins to become widespread, how will it be decided which customs to respect and which to reject?
In this case and others, it may be that new customs will be invented so as to satisfy that need without offending families. When this process has become broad enough and lasted long enough for those practicing these new customs to appear distinct from their original neighboring societies, we say that a new society has formed. Out of the mixture of cultures has come a new culture, with the opportunity to become a civilization.
New cultures arise at boundaries of old cultures, but they also can be found sprouting at key loci where people and their various ideas can mix. They will rise at the intersection of major trade routes, or at the mouth of a large river or where two popular rivers meet.
Examples of the “mixture” phase would include:
C. Culturally: Pioneer spirit
As they begin exploring new ideas or even new territories, the founders enjoy a pioneer spirit. The pioneer does not say, "Look how things are!" The pioneer says, "Think how things could be!" Pioneers embrace yet-unrealized potential. The visionary element of the pioneer spirit is grounded in truth before reality. Reality only serves to prove the truth upon which the vision has been formed.
Almost a third of a million Americans traveled the pioneer trails out west during the mid-1800's. In 1843, almost 900 people made the first trek to Oregon. In April 1849 alone, more than 20,000 people left for Oregon and California. The Mormon Trail saw over 70,000 people during a 20-year period. Taking the 2,000 mile trek could prove fatal, as one in ten pioneers died along the way. Yet they kept coming.
D. Spiritually: From bondage to spiritual faith
To illustrate this, think of the Hebrew people moving from their slavery in Egypt to becoming the feared conquerors of Canaan. In between those two periods lay many years of training learning to trust Yahweh regardless of the circumstances.
Think of the earliest Puritans fleeing the persecution of the Old World, and attempting to establish a safe haven to worship God as they saw fit.
However, this principle remains true even in false religions. Numerous nations and empires have been forged under the unifying power of religion – both true and false.
Every major empire has gone through a seven stage life cycle which can be tracked by its currency. When a country or empire is in early stages of growth, it starts out with sound money. The currency is usually gold, or something that is backed by gold or another similar asset or metal.
B. Socially: Mixture – ideas are exchanged at borders or loci
Civilizations are born at the intersections of societies. Where rules and customs are understood, as in the core of a social region, the members of that society have no incentive to change; in fact, social pressure tends to prevent change.
Where differing cultures intersect at their peripheries, however, it is not so clear what rules should be followed. For example, when the marriage customs of two societies differ, and intermarriage begins to become widespread, how will it be decided which customs to respect and which to reject?
In this case and others, it may be that new customs will be invented so as to satisfy that need without offending families. When this process has become broad enough and lasted long enough for those practicing these new customs to appear distinct from their original neighboring societies, we say that a new society has formed. Out of the mixture of cultures has come a new culture, with the opportunity to become a civilization.
New cultures arise at boundaries of old cultures, but they also can be found sprouting at key loci where people and their various ideas can mix. They will rise at the intersection of major trade routes, or at the mouth of a large river or where two popular rivers meet.
Examples of the “mixture” phase would include:
- Mesopotamia from 6,000-5,000 BC
- Minoa from 3,500-3000 BC
- Classical Rome from 1200-900 BC
- Western Europe from AD 300-700
- Russia from 500-1300
C. Culturally: Pioneer spirit
As they begin exploring new ideas or even new territories, the founders enjoy a pioneer spirit. The pioneer does not say, "Look how things are!" The pioneer says, "Think how things could be!" Pioneers embrace yet-unrealized potential. The visionary element of the pioneer spirit is grounded in truth before reality. Reality only serves to prove the truth upon which the vision has been formed.
Almost a third of a million Americans traveled the pioneer trails out west during the mid-1800's. In 1843, almost 900 people made the first trek to Oregon. In April 1849 alone, more than 20,000 people left for Oregon and California. The Mormon Trail saw over 70,000 people during a 20-year period. Taking the 2,000 mile trek could prove fatal, as one in ten pioneers died along the way. Yet they kept coming.
D. Spiritually: From bondage to spiritual faith
To illustrate this, think of the Hebrew people moving from their slavery in Egypt to becoming the feared conquerors of Canaan. In between those two periods lay many years of training learning to trust Yahweh regardless of the circumstances.
Think of the earliest Puritans fleeing the persecution of the Old World, and attempting to establish a safe haven to worship God as they saw fit.
However, this principle remains true even in false religions. Numerous nations and empires have been forged under the unifying power of religion – both true and false.
Stage Two - Gestation
A. Economically: Social programs and public works
When a country starts to develop both socially and economically, it puts more and more pressure on the economy which leads to more social programs and additional layers of public works. An example of this in American history would be "New Deal" type social economic reforms that were implemented after the Great Depression by FDR.
B. Socially: Gestation – ideas begin to take fruit
The period of gestation (that is, a time of development in preparation for later independent growth) is defined not by what it is, but rather by what it isn't: it isn't mixture or expansion.
Accordingly, this can be a relatively short period of time, or it may last for hundreds of years. It is a time of waiting for two conditions to come into being. First, the new society must mot be swallowed up by a neighboring society. Proximity to a stronger and expansionistic neighbor will prevent a new civilization from forming.
Second, the incipient civilization must develop an instrument of expansion. Without such an instrument, a society cannot gain the critical mass required for its members to begin conceiving of themselves as having a unique identity--that is, as a civilization. This stage is the time during which various instruments may be developed and discarded until one gains wide acceptance.
Examples would include:
C. Culturally: Conquests
D. Spiritually: Courage and liberty
When a country starts to develop both socially and economically, it puts more and more pressure on the economy which leads to more social programs and additional layers of public works. An example of this in American history would be "New Deal" type social economic reforms that were implemented after the Great Depression by FDR.
B. Socially: Gestation – ideas begin to take fruit
The period of gestation (that is, a time of development in preparation for later independent growth) is defined not by what it is, but rather by what it isn't: it isn't mixture or expansion.
Accordingly, this can be a relatively short period of time, or it may last for hundreds of years. It is a time of waiting for two conditions to come into being. First, the new society must mot be swallowed up by a neighboring society. Proximity to a stronger and expansionistic neighbor will prevent a new civilization from forming.
Second, the incipient civilization must develop an instrument of expansion. Without such an instrument, a society cannot gain the critical mass required for its members to begin conceiving of themselves as having a unique identity--that is, as a civilization. This stage is the time during which various instruments may be developed and discarded until one gains wide acceptance.
Examples would include:
- Mesopotamia from 5,000-4,500 BC
- Minoa from 3,000-2,500 BC
- Classical Rome from 900-800 BC
- Western Europe from 750-970
- Russia from 1300-1500
C. Culturally: Conquests
D. Spiritually: Courage and liberty
Stage Three - Growth
A. Economically: Massive military buildup
As it continues to develop economically it begins to have more and more influence over its neighbors. For this reason and in order to defend the lifestyle it has built it begins to fund a massive standing, professional military.
Rome started with a part time farmer army, which did not inhibit homeland production. They were located on a peninsula, Italy, so seas protected them from outsiders, as was later the case for Britain, America, and Japan. Britain, safely off the continent, could be more innovative and less defensive, hence beating the French costly and heavily armored knights with very low cost bows and arrows in the 1215 battle of Agincourt. America had a whole continent to itself with no major powers around to force it to waste resources on defense. Yankee ingenuity resulted in a steady rise up to World War Two. Japan was off the continent, allowing them to resist the Mongol hoards. But their real development happened after WWII, forced to demilitarize under the American occupation. In 2000 their per capita economy (GDP) was 24% higher than America.
Rome adopted the emperor system and an increasingly expensive professional military at the same time, with the Senate voting to give powers to the first emperor. The watershed for America was World War Two. Before WWII America had a 1% military GDP and during the Cold War an 8% average military GDP. Japan had a 7% military GDP in the thirties and 1% after the war until now. Eisenhower encouraged retaining military production after the war, Truman and the Secretary of State supported him and against the wishes of the War Department and the chiefs of staff, America abandoned the historically successful pattern of low military spending between wars.
B. Socially: Expansion
Once a civilization has a functioning instrument of expansion, it will begin to grow. This growth may be identified in four particular areas:
This period of growth is often explosive, because each of these four kinds of growth both depends on and augments the others. An expanding civilization will begin to enjoy an increased standard of living as its level of knowledge and production of goods rise. That knowledge includes medical understanding and technology, so life expectancy increases. The growth in population increases production, while leaving more persons free to explore the periphery of the civilization, expanding its borders. This exploration adds not only to the size of the civilization, but also to its knowledge. Exploration also opens up access to additional and new natural resources, which in turn contribute to increased production of goods.
An important feature of this period is the development of a core area within the civilization. As geographic expansion continues, the transmission of culture from the central area in which that culture is strongest to the expanding fringe areas becomes more difficult. This tends to split a civilization (particularly toward the end of the period of expansion) into what can be regarded as a core area and a periphery, usually defined by geography.
Examples would include:
o 600-250 BC in the West
o 1420-1650
o 1770-1929
o 1917-1989
C. Culturally: Commerce
In the first two ages, the warrior’s adventuresome and manly values make an empire gain power as it conquers land from others. Later on, businessmen, who normally value material success and dislike taking unnecessary risks, take over at the highest levels of society during the two next stages, the ages of commerce and affluence. Their societies downplay the values of the soldier.
They do this normally not from motives of conscience, but rather because of the weakening of a sense of duty in citizens, and the increase in selfishness, manifested in the desire for wealth and ease.
During these middle stages, empires stop taking more land, and start building walls instead. They switch from the offensive to the defensive. Historical examples include the wall built near the Scottish border by the Roman Emperor Hadrian, the Great Wall of China that tried to keep barbarians out, and even twentieth-century France’s Maginot line, placed along the German border.
For the US this took on the form of the Cold War. Instead of forts or walls we built the Mutually Assured Destruction theory and enough missiles to destroy the Earth several times over.
D. Spiritually: Abundance
As it continues to develop economically it begins to have more and more influence over its neighbors. For this reason and in order to defend the lifestyle it has built it begins to fund a massive standing, professional military.
Rome started with a part time farmer army, which did not inhibit homeland production. They were located on a peninsula, Italy, so seas protected them from outsiders, as was later the case for Britain, America, and Japan. Britain, safely off the continent, could be more innovative and less defensive, hence beating the French costly and heavily armored knights with very low cost bows and arrows in the 1215 battle of Agincourt. America had a whole continent to itself with no major powers around to force it to waste resources on defense. Yankee ingenuity resulted in a steady rise up to World War Two. Japan was off the continent, allowing them to resist the Mongol hoards. But their real development happened after WWII, forced to demilitarize under the American occupation. In 2000 their per capita economy (GDP) was 24% higher than America.
Rome adopted the emperor system and an increasingly expensive professional military at the same time, with the Senate voting to give powers to the first emperor. The watershed for America was World War Two. Before WWII America had a 1% military GDP and during the Cold War an 8% average military GDP. Japan had a 7% military GDP in the thirties and 1% after the war until now. Eisenhower encouraged retaining military production after the war, Truman and the Secretary of State supported him and against the wishes of the War Department and the chiefs of staff, America abandoned the historically successful pattern of low military spending between wars.
B. Socially: Expansion
Once a civilization has a functioning instrument of expansion, it will begin to grow. This growth may be identified in four particular areas:
- production of goods
- increase in population
- increase in geographic extent
- increase in knowledge
This period of growth is often explosive, because each of these four kinds of growth both depends on and augments the others. An expanding civilization will begin to enjoy an increased standard of living as its level of knowledge and production of goods rise. That knowledge includes medical understanding and technology, so life expectancy increases. The growth in population increases production, while leaving more persons free to explore the periphery of the civilization, expanding its borders. This exploration adds not only to the size of the civilization, but also to its knowledge. Exploration also opens up access to additional and new natural resources, which in turn contribute to increased production of goods.
An important feature of this period is the development of a core area within the civilization. As geographic expansion continues, the transmission of culture from the central area in which that culture is strongest to the expanding fringe areas becomes more difficult. This tends to split a civilization (particularly toward the end of the period of expansion) into what can be regarded as a core area and a periphery, usually defined by geography.
Examples would include:
- Mesopotamia from 4,500-2,500
- Minoa from 2,500-1,700
- Classical Rome from
o 600-250 BC in the West
- Western Europe from:
o 1420-1650
o 1770-1929
- Russia from
o 1917-1989
C. Culturally: Commerce
In the first two ages, the warrior’s adventuresome and manly values make an empire gain power as it conquers land from others. Later on, businessmen, who normally value material success and dislike taking unnecessary risks, take over at the highest levels of society during the two next stages, the ages of commerce and affluence. Their societies downplay the values of the soldier.
They do this normally not from motives of conscience, but rather because of the weakening of a sense of duty in citizens, and the increase in selfishness, manifested in the desire for wealth and ease.
During these middle stages, empires stop taking more land, and start building walls instead. They switch from the offensive to the defensive. Historical examples include the wall built near the Scottish border by the Roman Emperor Hadrian, the Great Wall of China that tried to keep barbarians out, and even twentieth-century France’s Maginot line, placed along the German border.
For the US this took on the form of the Cold War. Instead of forts or walls we built the Mutually Assured Destruction theory and enough missiles to destroy the Earth several times over.
D. Spiritually: Abundance
Stage Four - Selfishness
A. Economically: Military use creates vast expenditures
Eventually it puts this military to use and expenses explode. Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out. We saw this in World War I and II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.
At the time of the Janasaries of the Eastern Roman Empire in Constantinople an average soldier was paid sixteen times what a soldier in Britain earned at the same time. The emperor would advise his successor to “always pay the military well” to keep their loyalty. In America this had lead to a 1%/year linear rise in the gap between defense contractor pay and similar private sector jobs since 1942. The gap rose to 26% by 1968, 38% by 1981 and 41% by 1984. In Britain, the highest military spender in Western Europe between wars during the twentieth century, has dramatically dropped from 10% of the world economy in 1900 to 4% in 2000.
Interestingly, various comparisons of America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan in the seventies, eighties, and nineties show that murder and crime rates are 99.6% exactly proportional to long term average military spending rates. Those countries are listed in rank order from high military/murder to low military/murder. The ratio of America to Japan is six to one. Social decay matches economic decay. A forward looking manufacturing innovative achievement society with lots of engineers and equality, becomes a sideways looking service defensive control and power-oriented society of lawyers, lords and serfs. Income inequality returns to medieval levels, another period of militarism and stagnation.
B. Socially: Conflict
As noted earlier, eventually all instruments become institutions. Once this process has occurred to a substantial degree to a civilization's instrument of expansion, the civilization enters an age of conflict. This period is marked by four trends:
As the instrument of expansion becomes an institution in order to preserve the privileges of the elite, the civilization--particularly in the core--becomes more static, bureaucratized and legalistic. This tends to punish innovation instead of rewarding it, and progress in the accumulation of surplus is slowed as a result of the decline in inventiveness.
This does not go unnoticed by a civilization's members. Although it is a decline in the rate of expansion, not an actual decline in expansion (that is, a contraction), an advanced civilization is so accustomed to expansion that it cannot not expand. To put it another way, survival requires accelerating growth, and once such growth has begun, it must continue. (This is one of the primary criticisms against "progress" from both the environmentalist Left and the culturalist Right. Both have a point, but both also fail to realize that the only real-world alternative is no civilization at all.)
The declining rate of expansion pits the entrenched elite against the great mass of the people. When resources are perceived as being limited, competition between classes ensues. "The rich" hang on to their wealth and prerogatives, but, realizing that they are in the minority, divert the attention of the increasingly resentful masses with entertainment, and appease them with token gestures of wealth redistribution.
Meanwhile, resentment at not enjoying the same increase in the standard of living as their parents leads the masses to feel insecure, and this feeling manifests as social disruption and other irrational behavior. As Quigley describes it:
"This is generally a period of gambling, use of narcotics or intoxicants, obsession with sex (frequently as perversion), increasing crime, growing numbers of neurotics and psychotics, growing obsession with death and with the Hereafter."
Most prominently, wars of imperialism begin. These are attempts to impose a single political structure on the entire civilization, to achieve economic expansion by political means. These conflicts usually occur from the outside in. That is, wars of imperialism are generally waged by the political entities on the periphery of a civilization against the core. As the core succumbs first to a declining rate of expansion, and as unrest peaks there first, the more dynamic peripheral states conclude (not unreasonably, from their perspective) that "the center is hollow, it cannot stand." Rather than expanding outward, the smaller boundary states first consume each other, then they turn their attention inward, fighting over the remains of the core until one state (usually one of the most peripheral) has imposed its political structure over the entire civilization.
Examples would include:
o 250-146 in the West
o 1650-1815
o 1900 on
o 1989-? At this point Russia failed and did not advance any further
C. Culturally: Affluence
Even the brutal Mongol Empire, which didn’t build cities and even had a mobile palace for the Khan, by bringing most of Asia under its rule, encouraged the caravan trade across Eurasia’s famed Silk Road.
The growth of wealth and comfort usually undermines the values of character that led to a given empire’s creation through self-sacrifice and discipline when it began. The corrosive effects of material success encourage the upper class and the common people to discard the self-confident, self-disciplined values that had helped to create the empire. This leads to the empire’s eventual collapse. Perhaps an outside power, such as the barbarians in Rome’s case, wipes it out. Or maybe an energetic internal force, such as the pro-capitalist reformers in the Soviet Union, finishes the job instead. Either way, the weakness that allowed the eventual demise began with the self-indulgence that often comes with affluence.
Unsurprisingly, God warned Israel against departing from worshipping Him when they became materially satisfied after entering the Promised Land.[1]
D. Spiritually: Selfishness
[1] Deuteronomy 8:11-15, 17-18; 31:20
Eventually it puts this military to use and expenses explode. Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out. We saw this in World War I and II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.
At the time of the Janasaries of the Eastern Roman Empire in Constantinople an average soldier was paid sixteen times what a soldier in Britain earned at the same time. The emperor would advise his successor to “always pay the military well” to keep their loyalty. In America this had lead to a 1%/year linear rise in the gap between defense contractor pay and similar private sector jobs since 1942. The gap rose to 26% by 1968, 38% by 1981 and 41% by 1984. In Britain, the highest military spender in Western Europe between wars during the twentieth century, has dramatically dropped from 10% of the world economy in 1900 to 4% in 2000.
Interestingly, various comparisons of America, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Japan in the seventies, eighties, and nineties show that murder and crime rates are 99.6% exactly proportional to long term average military spending rates. Those countries are listed in rank order from high military/murder to low military/murder. The ratio of America to Japan is six to one. Social decay matches economic decay. A forward looking manufacturing innovative achievement society with lots of engineers and equality, becomes a sideways looking service defensive control and power-oriented society of lawyers, lords and serfs. Income inequality returns to medieval levels, another period of militarism and stagnation.
B. Socially: Conflict
As noted earlier, eventually all instruments become institutions. Once this process has occurred to a substantial degree to a civilization's instrument of expansion, the civilization enters an age of conflict. This period is marked by four trends:
- a decline in the rate of expansion
- an increase in class conflicts, especially in the core
- an increase in imperialistic wars
- an increase in irrationality and general pessimism
As the instrument of expansion becomes an institution in order to preserve the privileges of the elite, the civilization--particularly in the core--becomes more static, bureaucratized and legalistic. This tends to punish innovation instead of rewarding it, and progress in the accumulation of surplus is slowed as a result of the decline in inventiveness.
This does not go unnoticed by a civilization's members. Although it is a decline in the rate of expansion, not an actual decline in expansion (that is, a contraction), an advanced civilization is so accustomed to expansion that it cannot not expand. To put it another way, survival requires accelerating growth, and once such growth has begun, it must continue. (This is one of the primary criticisms against "progress" from both the environmentalist Left and the culturalist Right. Both have a point, but both also fail to realize that the only real-world alternative is no civilization at all.)
The declining rate of expansion pits the entrenched elite against the great mass of the people. When resources are perceived as being limited, competition between classes ensues. "The rich" hang on to their wealth and prerogatives, but, realizing that they are in the minority, divert the attention of the increasingly resentful masses with entertainment, and appease them with token gestures of wealth redistribution.
Meanwhile, resentment at not enjoying the same increase in the standard of living as their parents leads the masses to feel insecure, and this feeling manifests as social disruption and other irrational behavior. As Quigley describes it:
"This is generally a period of gambling, use of narcotics or intoxicants, obsession with sex (frequently as perversion), increasing crime, growing numbers of neurotics and psychotics, growing obsession with death and with the Hereafter."
Most prominently, wars of imperialism begin. These are attempts to impose a single political structure on the entire civilization, to achieve economic expansion by political means. These conflicts usually occur from the outside in. That is, wars of imperialism are generally waged by the political entities on the periphery of a civilization against the core. As the core succumbs first to a declining rate of expansion, and as unrest peaks there first, the more dynamic peripheral states conclude (not unreasonably, from their perspective) that "the center is hollow, it cannot stand." Rather than expanding outward, the smaller boundary states first consume each other, then they turn their attention inward, fighting over the remains of the core until one state (usually one of the most peripheral) has imposed its political structure over the entire civilization.
Examples would include:
- Mesopotamia from 2500-800 BC
- Minoa from 1700-1600 BC
- Classical Rome from
o 250-146 in the West
- Western Europe from
o 1650-1815
o 1900 on
- Russia from
o 1989-? At this point Russia failed and did not advance any further
C. Culturally: Affluence
Even the brutal Mongol Empire, which didn’t build cities and even had a mobile palace for the Khan, by bringing most of Asia under its rule, encouraged the caravan trade across Eurasia’s famed Silk Road.
The growth of wealth and comfort usually undermines the values of character that led to a given empire’s creation through self-sacrifice and discipline when it began. The corrosive effects of material success encourage the upper class and the common people to discard the self-confident, self-disciplined values that had helped to create the empire. This leads to the empire’s eventual collapse. Perhaps an outside power, such as the barbarians in Rome’s case, wipes it out. Or maybe an energetic internal force, such as the pro-capitalist reformers in the Soviet Union, finishes the job instead. Either way, the weakness that allowed the eventual demise began with the self-indulgence that often comes with affluence.
Unsurprisingly, God warned Israel against departing from worshipping Him when they became materially satisfied after entering the Promised Land.[1]
D. Spiritually: Selfishness
[1] Deuteronomy 8:11-15, 17-18; 31:20
Stage Five - Imperialism
A. Economically: Fiat – money detached from backing
To fund those wars, which are pretty much the most expensive of man’s normal endeavors, it has to steal the wealth of the people by creating a currency which can be reproduced in unlimited quantities. The gold standard of the US was taken away little by little starting with World War I. Finally Nixon finished the job in 1971, by completely detaching our currency from gold, in order to fund the Vietnam War.
Historically, no country or empire has ever survived once it implemented a fiat currency.
B. Socially: Empire
As previously noted, once an instrument of expansion has become an institution, one of three things will happen: it will be reformed back into a functioning instrument; it will be circumvented by the creation of a new instrument (which permits expansion while leaving the trappings of power to those who controlled the previous institution); or those with vested interests in preserving the institution of expansion will prevail, and it will become permanently entrenched.
In the former two cases, in which there is a new instrument of expansion, the civilization returns to Stage 3, the age of Expansion. Otherwise, it proceeds to Stage 5: Universal Empire.
This process of reform, circumvention, or vested interest success takes place during the wars of imperialism in Stage 4, the Age of Conflict. Once a single peripheral state has imposed its political structure over the whole civilization, a universal empire has been achieved. With the cessation of hostilities, an apparent Golden Age ensues.
This is later regarded as a time of peace and prosperity. There is peace because there are no more political opponents. And there is prosperity derived from relaxing internal trade barriers, instituting common systems of measurement and coinage, and increasing domestic government spending to maintain what is felt should be the proper appearance of a universal empire.
But these things prove illusory. The peace is the calm of exhaustion, and the prosperity is the burning of internal resources to maintain a standard of living that cannot long be supported. Without an instrument of expansion, there is little if any innovation to replace the wealth being spent on unproductive consumption and gigantic monuments (such as the Pyramids, the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, and the Coliseum).
Examples would include:
o as a whole civilization from 725-450 BC
o 1810
o 1942
C. Culturally: Intellect
Conquest and (later) business investment promoted by the empire’s unity builds the wealth that leads to the age of intellect. People are not as tied to the land and they have more leisure time to devote to more cerebral pursuits. During this stage, the empire’s leaders spend lots of money to establish educational institutions that resemble modern universities and high schools.
Unfortunately, during the age of intellect, schools may produce skeptical intellectuals who oppose the values and religious beliefs of their empires’ early leaders. For example, the medieval Muslim philosophers Avicenna and Averroes, by accepting much of ancient Greek philosophy, weren’t orthodox in belief.
Scholars also may manage schools that teach the ruling class and/or some of the average people subjects that are either mainly oriented towards financial success (such as the M.B.A. today) or simply impractical. In the Roman Empire, teachers taught rhetoric (speech making) when emotionally persuading assemblies was no longer of political value. In contrast, during the early Roman Republic, students received a basic education that stressed character development and virtue.
False ideas are bringing about the decline of western culture. Carl F. H. Henry, in his book Twilight of a Great Civilization, says: “There is a new barbarism. This barbarism has embraced a new pagan mentality . . . not simply rejecting the legacy of the West, but embracing a new pagan mentality where there is no fixed truth.”
Today we live in a world where biblical absolutes are ignored, and unless we return to these biblical truths, our nation will continue to decline.
Consider the example of Julius Wellhausen (1844-1918). Although he may not be as well known as some other philosophers or writers, his influence was just as profound. He was a German Bible scholar whose theory on the dating of the Pentateuch completely transformed Old Testament studies.
Wellhausen argued that the early books of the Bible were not put together by Moses but were gathered together many centuries later by several different men called redactors who wove various strands together. He and his disciples established an anti-supernatural approach to the scriptures which is influential in most denominational seminaries today.
Consider also Sigmund Freud (1856-1939). He merely took the logical implications of what Darwin was doing in biology and applied them to what today is known as psychology and psychiatry. Freud argued that humans are basically autonomous and therefore do not need to know God. Instead, we need to know and understand ourselves since our problems stem from those secret things that have evolved in our lives from our past.
Another influential person was John Dewey (1859-1952). He is the founder of modern education and published his first work, The School and Society, in 1899. John Dewey was also one of the co-signers of the Humanist Manifesto in 1933.
Dewey, like Darwin and Freud, believed that humans are autonomous. They don't need to have an authority above them but can evolve their our own system of education. Thus the very foundation of modern education is anti-supernatural.
Ideas have consequences, and false ideas can bring down a nation. The theories of these men are having devastating consequences in our nation and world. Unless we return to biblical absolutes, our nation will continue its decline.
D. Spiritually: Apathetic complacency
To fund those wars, which are pretty much the most expensive of man’s normal endeavors, it has to steal the wealth of the people by creating a currency which can be reproduced in unlimited quantities. The gold standard of the US was taken away little by little starting with World War I. Finally Nixon finished the job in 1971, by completely detaching our currency from gold, in order to fund the Vietnam War.
Historically, no country or empire has ever survived once it implemented a fiat currency.
B. Socially: Empire
As previously noted, once an instrument of expansion has become an institution, one of three things will happen: it will be reformed back into a functioning instrument; it will be circumvented by the creation of a new instrument (which permits expansion while leaving the trappings of power to those who controlled the previous institution); or those with vested interests in preserving the institution of expansion will prevail, and it will become permanently entrenched.
In the former two cases, in which there is a new instrument of expansion, the civilization returns to Stage 3, the age of Expansion. Otherwise, it proceeds to Stage 5: Universal Empire.
This process of reform, circumvention, or vested interest success takes place during the wars of imperialism in Stage 4, the Age of Conflict. Once a single peripheral state has imposed its political structure over the whole civilization, a universal empire has been achieved. With the cessation of hostilities, an apparent Golden Age ensues.
This is later regarded as a time of peace and prosperity. There is peace because there are no more political opponents. And there is prosperity derived from relaxing internal trade barriers, instituting common systems of measurement and coinage, and increasing domestic government spending to maintain what is felt should be the proper appearance of a universal empire.
But these things prove illusory. The peace is the calm of exhaustion, and the prosperity is the burning of internal resources to maintain a standard of living that cannot long be supported. Without an instrument of expansion, there is little if any innovation to replace the wealth being spent on unproductive consumption and gigantic monuments (such as the Pyramids, the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, and the Coliseum).
Examples would include:
- Mesopotamia
o as a whole civilization from 725-450 BC
- Minoa as a whole civilization from 1600-1450 BC
- Classical Rome as a whole civilization from 146 BC – 150 AD
- Western Europe hit this stage but only briefly three times. It did is as core sections and faltered from that point on:
o 1810
o 1942
C. Culturally: Intellect
Conquest and (later) business investment promoted by the empire’s unity builds the wealth that leads to the age of intellect. People are not as tied to the land and they have more leisure time to devote to more cerebral pursuits. During this stage, the empire’s leaders spend lots of money to establish educational institutions that resemble modern universities and high schools.
Unfortunately, during the age of intellect, schools may produce skeptical intellectuals who oppose the values and religious beliefs of their empires’ early leaders. For example, the medieval Muslim philosophers Avicenna and Averroes, by accepting much of ancient Greek philosophy, weren’t orthodox in belief.
Scholars also may manage schools that teach the ruling class and/or some of the average people subjects that are either mainly oriented towards financial success (such as the M.B.A. today) or simply impractical. In the Roman Empire, teachers taught rhetoric (speech making) when emotionally persuading assemblies was no longer of political value. In contrast, during the early Roman Republic, students received a basic education that stressed character development and virtue.
False ideas are bringing about the decline of western culture. Carl F. H. Henry, in his book Twilight of a Great Civilization, says: “There is a new barbarism. This barbarism has embraced a new pagan mentality . . . not simply rejecting the legacy of the West, but embracing a new pagan mentality where there is no fixed truth.”
Today we live in a world where biblical absolutes are ignored, and unless we return to these biblical truths, our nation will continue to decline.
Consider the example of Julius Wellhausen (1844-1918). Although he may not be as well known as some other philosophers or writers, his influence was just as profound. He was a German Bible scholar whose theory on the dating of the Pentateuch completely transformed Old Testament studies.
Wellhausen argued that the early books of the Bible were not put together by Moses but were gathered together many centuries later by several different men called redactors who wove various strands together. He and his disciples established an anti-supernatural approach to the scriptures which is influential in most denominational seminaries today.
Consider also Sigmund Freud (1856-1939). He merely took the logical implications of what Darwin was doing in biology and applied them to what today is known as psychology and psychiatry. Freud argued that humans are basically autonomous and therefore do not need to know God. Instead, we need to know and understand ourselves since our problems stem from those secret things that have evolved in our lives from our past.
Another influential person was John Dewey (1859-1952). He is the founder of modern education and published his first work, The School and Society, in 1899. John Dewey was also one of the co-signers of the Humanist Manifesto in 1933.
Dewey, like Darwin and Freud, believed that humans are autonomous. They don't need to have an authority above them but can evolve their our own system of education. Thus the very foundation of modern education is anti-supernatural.
Ideas have consequences, and false ideas can bring down a nation. The theories of these men are having devastating consequences in our nation and world. Unless we return to biblical absolutes, our nation will continue its decline.
D. Spiritually: Apathetic complacency
Stage Six - Decay
Moral Decay by Dave Ware
A. Economically: Loss of faith in the currency
The wealth transfer caused by this expansion of the currency supply is felt by the population as severe consumer price inflation and that triggers a loss in faith in the currency. The primary symptom is price inflation. During 2010 we already saw a massive spike with an average increase of 46% in that twelve month period alone. In 2011 we’ve seen record prices for rice and wheat. We’ve seen Egypt essentially collapse because of the food prices and food inflation so we are clearly right here. We’ve seen a massive price increase for food.
The move from stage six to stage seven will represent the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind from people who don’t understand what’s going on to people who do. It’s interesting to note that there were more new millionaires made during the Great Depression than ever before in history.
B. Socially: Decay
Once it becomes clear that the bulk of a civilization's wealth has been used up, the decline is usually mercifully swift. I say "mercifully," because this is a period of great distress.
During this time, as recognition of the civilization's poverty spreads, the standard of living falls quickly. Law and order break down. Civil unrest sparks protests, some of which turn violent. Taxes cannot be collected, and other forms of public service such as military service (and military actions themselves) are resisted. Property cannot be protected except (if at all) by force. Personal violence becomes a daily occurrence. Trade fails, as fraud can no longer be punished. Town life fails; basic survival needs force people into the country where they can grow food, and the "middle class" disappears. Religious revivals sweep the land. The medical technology that sustains life becomes difficult or impossible to obtain, resulting in high rates of infant mortality and shortened lifespans. Finally, literacy itself fails.
Examples would include:
· Mesopotamia from 450-350 BC
· Minoa from 1450-1250 BC
· Classical Rome from 150-300
C. Culturally: Decadence
Who are our host nation’s heroes? What does their selection indicate about the values of its people? The American people generally admire above all and pursue avidly news (i.e., gossip) about celebrities such as sports stars, singers, actors, and musicians.
The heroes of an empire’s leaders and people change over time as their values do. Soldiers, builders, pioneers, and explorers are admired in the initial stages of the empire life cycle. Then successful businessmen and entrepreneurs are esteemed during the ages of commerce and affluence. For example, late nineteenth century middle class Americans wanted their children to learn the values of prudence, saving, and foresight as found in Horatio Alger’s stories. Intellectuals are also increasingly respected during the age of intellect.
During the last stages of decadence and decline, an empire’s people often think most highly of and imitate the athletes, musicians, and actors. They tend to do this regardless of how corrupt these celebrities’ private lives are.
Remarkably, in tenth-century Baghdad, during Abbasid Empire’s decline, its writers complained about the singers of love songs having a bad influence on the young people! How different is the America of recent decades? Consider the successive major targets of conservative critics: Elvis, the Beatles, Ozzy Osbourne, and Marilyn Manson. Because people grow emotionally attached to the (rock) music they love, they have a high regard for its singers. Inevitably, this music’s often spiritually rotten lyrical content, such as through blunt sexual references, bad language, and Satanic allusions, influences fans. The immoral lifestyles of many rock groups, which often use drugs and frequently engage in casual sex, do also.
More generally, what are some common features of an empire’s culture in its declining period?
1. The decline of sexual morality, an aversion to marriage in favor of “living together,” and an increased divorce rate all combine to undermine family stability. This happened in the upper class of the late Roman Republic and early Empire. The first-century A.D. writer Seneca once complained about Roman upper class women:
“They divorce in order to remarry. They marry in order to divorce.”
The birth rate declines and abortion and infanticide both increase as family size is deliberately limited. The historian W.H. McNeill has referred to the “biological suicide of the Roman upper classes” as one reason for Rome’s decline. Gay sex becomes publicly acceptable and spreads, such as it was among the ancient Greeks before Rome conquered them.
2. The increased economic and political power of women, such as by their entry into the professions and the general workforce, are another sign of decline. For as women take over various roles or responsibilities in society, many men feel liberated to be irresponsibly non-productive or even destructive. During their empire’s decline, Arab historians objected to the increased influence of women in public life. The Roman satirist Juvenal was horrified by female gladiators, poets, athletes, and actresses.
In a process that he has called “sexual suicide,” the sociologist George Gilder in “Men and Marriage” describes how the feminist values presently enshrined in our culture lead to demographic decline. For as women increasingly feel the need both to bring home the bacon and to fry it up in a pan, the men correspondingly shirk more their family and work responsibilities. It’s no coincidence that divorce rates and women’s labor force participation rates increase in lock step.
3. Many foreign immigrants settle in the empire’s capital and major cities. The mixture of ethnic groups in these cosmopolitan places in close proximity inevitably produces conflicts. Because of their location within the empire, their influence greatly exceeds their percentage of the population. Here diversity plainly leads to divisiveness. (This problem could arise elsewhere within an empire’s borders. The late Roman Empire, for example, tried to co-opt barbarians by settling them within its frontier regions and then hiring them to fight other barbarians).
True, some immigration is helpful. As college-educated immigrants arrive, they normally benefit America economically while representing a “brain drain” from Third World countries. Indeed, the United States is justifiably proud of historically being a melting pot nation of immigrants. Nevertheless, the present floodtide of immigrants, legal or illegal, equals in impact the wave that arrived at America’s shores around 1900. Unfortunately, today they are far more apt to be a divisive force. Why? Unlike a hundred years ago, America’s intellectual elite overall has adopted multiculturalism and has rejected assimilation as its ideal. Today, multiculturalism is the ideology underlying a potentially ultimate political Balkanization. A lack of cultural unity as an ideal inevitably leads to conflict in a free society such as in the United States.
4. Both irresponsible pleasure seeking and pessimism increase among the people and their leaders. The spirit described in I Corinthians 15:32 spreads through society: “Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.” As people cynically give up looking for solutions to the problems of life and society, they drop out of the system. They then turn to mindless entertainment, luxuries and sexual activity, and drugs or alcohol. The astonishingly corrupt and lavish parties of the Roman Empire’s elite are a case in point. The Emperor Nero, for instance, would spend the modern equivalent of $500,000 for just the flowers at some banquets.
5. The government provides welfare for the poor extensively. In the case of the city of Rome, government-provided bread and spectacles helped to keep the masses content. (Rome had perhaps 1.2 million people around 170 A.D.) About one-half of its non-slave population was on the dole at least part of the year. True, helping the poor shows Christian compassion (Mark 14:7) but such help also can encourage laziness and dependency (2 Thessalonians 3:10-12). Such problems are especially likely to result when the poor believe state-provided charity is a right of permanent duration, not a privilege to tide them over temporary bad times.
D. Spiritually: Moral decay
About the time our original thirteen states adopted their new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
The wealth transfer caused by this expansion of the currency supply is felt by the population as severe consumer price inflation and that triggers a loss in faith in the currency. The primary symptom is price inflation. During 2010 we already saw a massive spike with an average increase of 46% in that twelve month period alone. In 2011 we’ve seen record prices for rice and wheat. We’ve seen Egypt essentially collapse because of the food prices and food inflation so we are clearly right here. We’ve seen a massive price increase for food.
The move from stage six to stage seven will represent the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind from people who don’t understand what’s going on to people who do. It’s interesting to note that there were more new millionaires made during the Great Depression than ever before in history.
B. Socially: Decay
Once it becomes clear that the bulk of a civilization's wealth has been used up, the decline is usually mercifully swift. I say "mercifully," because this is a period of great distress.
During this time, as recognition of the civilization's poverty spreads, the standard of living falls quickly. Law and order break down. Civil unrest sparks protests, some of which turn violent. Taxes cannot be collected, and other forms of public service such as military service (and military actions themselves) are resisted. Property cannot be protected except (if at all) by force. Personal violence becomes a daily occurrence. Trade fails, as fraud can no longer be punished. Town life fails; basic survival needs force people into the country where they can grow food, and the "middle class" disappears. Religious revivals sweep the land. The medical technology that sustains life becomes difficult or impossible to obtain, resulting in high rates of infant mortality and shortened lifespans. Finally, literacy itself fails.
Examples would include:
· Mesopotamia from 450-350 BC
· Minoa from 1450-1250 BC
· Classical Rome from 150-300
C. Culturally: Decadence
Who are our host nation’s heroes? What does their selection indicate about the values of its people? The American people generally admire above all and pursue avidly news (i.e., gossip) about celebrities such as sports stars, singers, actors, and musicians.
The heroes of an empire’s leaders and people change over time as their values do. Soldiers, builders, pioneers, and explorers are admired in the initial stages of the empire life cycle. Then successful businessmen and entrepreneurs are esteemed during the ages of commerce and affluence. For example, late nineteenth century middle class Americans wanted their children to learn the values of prudence, saving, and foresight as found in Horatio Alger’s stories. Intellectuals are also increasingly respected during the age of intellect.
During the last stages of decadence and decline, an empire’s people often think most highly of and imitate the athletes, musicians, and actors. They tend to do this regardless of how corrupt these celebrities’ private lives are.
Remarkably, in tenth-century Baghdad, during Abbasid Empire’s decline, its writers complained about the singers of love songs having a bad influence on the young people! How different is the America of recent decades? Consider the successive major targets of conservative critics: Elvis, the Beatles, Ozzy Osbourne, and Marilyn Manson. Because people grow emotionally attached to the (rock) music they love, they have a high regard for its singers. Inevitably, this music’s often spiritually rotten lyrical content, such as through blunt sexual references, bad language, and Satanic allusions, influences fans. The immoral lifestyles of many rock groups, which often use drugs and frequently engage in casual sex, do also.
More generally, what are some common features of an empire’s culture in its declining period?
1. The decline of sexual morality, an aversion to marriage in favor of “living together,” and an increased divorce rate all combine to undermine family stability. This happened in the upper class of the late Roman Republic and early Empire. The first-century A.D. writer Seneca once complained about Roman upper class women:
“They divorce in order to remarry. They marry in order to divorce.”
The birth rate declines and abortion and infanticide both increase as family size is deliberately limited. The historian W.H. McNeill has referred to the “biological suicide of the Roman upper classes” as one reason for Rome’s decline. Gay sex becomes publicly acceptable and spreads, such as it was among the ancient Greeks before Rome conquered them.
2. The increased economic and political power of women, such as by their entry into the professions and the general workforce, are another sign of decline. For as women take over various roles or responsibilities in society, many men feel liberated to be irresponsibly non-productive or even destructive. During their empire’s decline, Arab historians objected to the increased influence of women in public life. The Roman satirist Juvenal was horrified by female gladiators, poets, athletes, and actresses.
In a process that he has called “sexual suicide,” the sociologist George Gilder in “Men and Marriage” describes how the feminist values presently enshrined in our culture lead to demographic decline. For as women increasingly feel the need both to bring home the bacon and to fry it up in a pan, the men correspondingly shirk more their family and work responsibilities. It’s no coincidence that divorce rates and women’s labor force participation rates increase in lock step.
3. Many foreign immigrants settle in the empire’s capital and major cities. The mixture of ethnic groups in these cosmopolitan places in close proximity inevitably produces conflicts. Because of their location within the empire, their influence greatly exceeds their percentage of the population. Here diversity plainly leads to divisiveness. (This problem could arise elsewhere within an empire’s borders. The late Roman Empire, for example, tried to co-opt barbarians by settling them within its frontier regions and then hiring them to fight other barbarians).
True, some immigration is helpful. As college-educated immigrants arrive, they normally benefit America economically while representing a “brain drain” from Third World countries. Indeed, the United States is justifiably proud of historically being a melting pot nation of immigrants. Nevertheless, the present floodtide of immigrants, legal or illegal, equals in impact the wave that arrived at America’s shores around 1900. Unfortunately, today they are far more apt to be a divisive force. Why? Unlike a hundred years ago, America’s intellectual elite overall has adopted multiculturalism and has rejected assimilation as its ideal. Today, multiculturalism is the ideology underlying a potentially ultimate political Balkanization. A lack of cultural unity as an ideal inevitably leads to conflict in a free society such as in the United States.
4. Both irresponsible pleasure seeking and pessimism increase among the people and their leaders. The spirit described in I Corinthians 15:32 spreads through society: “Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.” As people cynically give up looking for solutions to the problems of life and society, they drop out of the system. They then turn to mindless entertainment, luxuries and sexual activity, and drugs or alcohol. The astonishingly corrupt and lavish parties of the Roman Empire’s elite are a case in point. The Emperor Nero, for instance, would spend the modern equivalent of $500,000 for just the flowers at some banquets.
5. The government provides welfare for the poor extensively. In the case of the city of Rome, government-provided bread and spectacles helped to keep the masses content. (Rome had perhaps 1.2 million people around 170 A.D.) About one-half of its non-slave population was on the dole at least part of the year. True, helping the poor shows Christian compassion (Mark 14:7) but such help also can encourage laziness and dependency (2 Thessalonians 3:10-12). Such problems are especially likely to result when the poor believe state-provided charity is a right of permanent duration, not a privilege to tide them over temporary bad times.
D. Spiritually: Moral decay
About the time our original thirteen states adopted their new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier:
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
Stage Seven - Collapse
A. Economically: End of the currency (inflation)
An en masse movement out of the currency into the precious metals and other tangible assets and commodities finally takes place. The currency collapses and massive wealth is transferred to those who had the foresight to position their money into the right place beforehand.
For those who think that this is a rare event and that the chances of this happening are slim, consider the fact that this type of transfer of wealth has happened in 30 countries in the last 100 years and twice in the US.
B. Socially: Invasion
Although geographical or other features may allow a civilization to remain in a period of decay for many years, eventually it falls prey to forces of one or more external cultures. Whether by military occupation or political annexation, or simply by incorporation through settlement, invasion at some point destroys what was once a civilization. The mixture of old and new cultures may produce a new culture, forming Stage 1 of what will become a new civilization, or it may not. But the old civilization is gone.
Examples would include:
· Mesopotamia invaded by the Greeks from 350-200 BC
· Minoa invaded by the Greeks from 1250-1100 BC.
· Rome invaded by the Germanic tribes from 300-600
C. Culturally: Decline and collapse
D. Spiritually: Dependence and bondage
Notice the progression from bondage to liberty back to bondage. The first generation throws off the shackles of bondage only to have a later generation through apathy and indifference allow itself to once again be enslaved.
This is the direction this and every other country is headed. The book of Judges shows that the nation of Israel passed through these same stages. And this country will do the same unless revival and reformation break out and reverse the inexorable decline of this nation.
An en masse movement out of the currency into the precious metals and other tangible assets and commodities finally takes place. The currency collapses and massive wealth is transferred to those who had the foresight to position their money into the right place beforehand.
For those who think that this is a rare event and that the chances of this happening are slim, consider the fact that this type of transfer of wealth has happened in 30 countries in the last 100 years and twice in the US.
B. Socially: Invasion
Although geographical or other features may allow a civilization to remain in a period of decay for many years, eventually it falls prey to forces of one or more external cultures. Whether by military occupation or political annexation, or simply by incorporation through settlement, invasion at some point destroys what was once a civilization. The mixture of old and new cultures may produce a new culture, forming Stage 1 of what will become a new civilization, or it may not. But the old civilization is gone.
Examples would include:
· Mesopotamia invaded by the Greeks from 350-200 BC
· Minoa invaded by the Greeks from 1250-1100 BC.
· Rome invaded by the Germanic tribes from 300-600
C. Culturally: Decline and collapse
D. Spiritually: Dependence and bondage
Notice the progression from bondage to liberty back to bondage. The first generation throws off the shackles of bondage only to have a later generation through apathy and indifference allow itself to once again be enslaved.
This is the direction this and every other country is headed. The book of Judges shows that the nation of Israel passed through these same stages. And this country will do the same unless revival and reformation break out and reverse the inexorable decline of this nation.
Factors at play that must be considered
Geostrategic factors
A flanking or isolated position
Continent-wide nations are in a superior position
Access to sufficient resources
Colonies – not “putting all resource eggs in one basket”
Relative affluence between the nation and its neighbors
Industrialization
Industrial organization
Broad-based industrial infrastructure
Military
Modern and modernizing military systems
Navy – this is a watery planet after all
National efficiency
Organization to exploit the newer means of production and technology
Ability to keep up with the pace of technological change
Advanced financial systems including banking and credit
Political climate
Ongoing arms races
Domestic stability
Late comer (in either tech or war)
Shifts in global economic balances
A flanking or isolated position
Continent-wide nations are in a superior position
Access to sufficient resources
Colonies – not “putting all resource eggs in one basket”
Relative affluence between the nation and its neighbors
Industrialization
Industrial organization
Broad-based industrial infrastructure
Military
Modern and modernizing military systems
Navy – this is a watery planet after all
National efficiency
Organization to exploit the newer means of production and technology
Ability to keep up with the pace of technological change
Advanced financial systems including banking and credit
Political climate
Ongoing arms races
Domestic stability
Late comer (in either tech or war)
Shifts in global economic balances
Shifts in regional economic balances as a sign of decline
Shifts which occur over time in the general economic and productive balances have a direct effect on and can be used to predict the future position occupied by a Power in the international system. Economic shifts simultaneously herald the decline of an old and the rise of a new Power and its impact on the military/territorial order. This is why the recent move in the global productive balances toward China is of interest.
It’s not so much how much a Power has in comparison to what it had, but what its piece of the global pie is. For instance, mid 18th century Netherlands had more than mid 17th century Netherlands did, but was actually in decline relatively speaking because neighboring France and England had grown so much more!
By 2000, the First World had 1 billion people and controlled 80% of the world’s economy. The Third World had 5 billion who shared the remaining 20%. By 2020, the First World will only have grown to 1.1 billion while the Third will have reached 8 billion. The percentage of the population that the First world represents will have slid from 20% to 13%. What is more disconcerting however, is that the control of the economy will have shifted from:
2000 First 80% Third 20%
to
2020 First 35% Third 65%
The vast majority of this shift is in the direction of China and India.
It’s not so much how much a Power has in comparison to what it had, but what its piece of the global pie is. For instance, mid 18th century Netherlands had more than mid 17th century Netherlands did, but was actually in decline relatively speaking because neighboring France and England had grown so much more!
By 2000, the First World had 1 billion people and controlled 80% of the world’s economy. The Third World had 5 billion who shared the remaining 20%. By 2020, the First World will only have grown to 1.1 billion while the Third will have reached 8 billion. The percentage of the population that the First world represents will have slid from 20% to 13%. What is more disconcerting however, is that the control of the economy will have shifted from:
2000 First 80% Third 20%
to
2020 First 35% Third 65%
The vast majority of this shift is in the direction of China and India.
Military expenditure as a sign of decline - reason one
Another indication of the decline of a Power is its increased expenditures on its military. Sometimes, a power will, in its early stages focus more on its domestic business. As it expands it comes into more and more contact with its neighbors and has more and more assets worth protecting. It may end up spending more and more on the military, while finding the world less and less secure. Why? For one thing, there’s more worth taking. It’s like the proverb, “The rich can pay a ransom, but the poor won’t even get threatened.” (Proverbs 13:8)
Military expenditure as a sign of decline - reason two
A second reason for the increased sense of insecurity is that there is no such thing as a one-sided arms race. If one Power improves its military technology, some other Power somewhere determines that it is necessary to at least try to keep up. The arms race is a bottomless pit. The more you spend, the more you must spend. In this sense, military expenditures demonstrate a fundamental change in mindset from a creative outgoing state to a conservative, fearful state. Odds are, such a Power is simultaneously experiencing a “brain drain” and a dramatic decrease in home-grown inventions, patents and scholarly papers.
So a Power that has peaked economically will tend to spend more and more on its “security”, diverting potential resources from “investment” and compounding its dilemma. It’s a sign of having peaked and of being on the decline. It’s almost like desperation!
With this in mind I believe it’s important to consider the United States’ military expenditures in contrast to other major Powers.
So a Power that has peaked economically will tend to spend more and more on its “security”, diverting potential resources from “investment” and compounding its dilemma. It’s a sign of having peaked and of being on the decline. It’s almost like desperation!
With this in mind I believe it’s important to consider the United States’ military expenditures in contrast to other major Powers.
Increased security or not?
As for the effectiveness of these expenditures and whether the sense of insecurity is based on fact or not, consider the following. The first time the Security Council authorized the use of force was in 1950 to secure a North Korean withdrawal from South Korea. From 1950 to 1990 the UN authorized the use of force six times. The only one that was truly significant was the agreement to force Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait. However, between 1990 and 1996, it voted in favor of forceful intervention sixty-one times. More than 90,000 U.N. peacekeeping troops are stationed in conflict zones around the world—more than at any other moment in history.
While the missions are financed largely by the U.S. and European countries, most soldiers on the ground come from the developing world. Poor countries have an economic motive to go along with this system. For every peacekeeper a country provides, the U.N. pays their government each month: $1028 for salary and allowances; $303 supplementary pay for specialists; $68 for personal clothing, gear, and equipment; and $5 for personal weaponry. (The governments, in turn, pay the soldiers.)
Some would use the word ‘mercenary’ to describe this setup. Rich countries send money, poor countries send troops. It reminds me of 4th century BC Carthage (which grew from 9th century Phoenicia). It had a huge economy, and a vast trading empire built on the back of the largest navy of its day. However, in its decline, it developed a heavy reliance on mercenaries to fight its wars abroad. This didn't help them in their fall at the end of the Third Punic War in 146 BC.
While the missions are financed largely by the U.S. and European countries, most soldiers on the ground come from the developing world. Poor countries have an economic motive to go along with this system. For every peacekeeper a country provides, the U.N. pays their government each month: $1028 for salary and allowances; $303 supplementary pay for specialists; $68 for personal clothing, gear, and equipment; and $5 for personal weaponry. (The governments, in turn, pay the soldiers.)
Some would use the word ‘mercenary’ to describe this setup. Rich countries send money, poor countries send troops. It reminds me of 4th century BC Carthage (which grew from 9th century Phoenicia). It had a huge economy, and a vast trading empire built on the back of the largest navy of its day. However, in its decline, it developed a heavy reliance on mercenaries to fight its wars abroad. This didn't help them in their fall at the end of the Third Punic War in 146 BC.
The decline with the seven stages and Romans 1 in mind
Stage One
Family Decline: Men stop being spiritual leaders
Nations most often fall from within, and this fall is usually due to a decline in the moral and spiritual values in the family. As families go, so goes a nation.
In his book Our Dance Has Turned to Death, Carl Wilson identifies the common pattern of family decline in ancient Greece and the Roman Empire. Notice how these seven stages parallel what is happening in our nation today. In the first stage, men ceased to lead their families in worship. Spiritual and moral development became secondary. Their view of God became naturalistic, mathematical, and mechanical.
Sin: Ingratitude
The decline and fall of nations is usually due to internal factors rather than external threats. Even though some may have fallen to barbarians, their demise ultimately came because of moral and spiritual weakness which manifested itself as military weakness.
In the opening chapter of the Apostle Paul's letter to the church in Rome, he traces a similar progression. In fact, Romans 1 shows the decline of a civilization from a societal perspective. Looking at the Hellenistic world of his time, he reflects on the progression of sin in a nation.
The first stage is described as a general lack of thankfulness. Although they have been prospered by God, they are ungrateful.
Stage Two
Family Decline: Men selfishly neglect their families
In the second stage, men selfishly neglected care of their wives and children to pursue material wealth, political and military power, and cultural development. Material values began to dominate thought, and the man began to exalt his own role as an individual.
Sin: Turn to idolatry (wealth, pleasure, power, self)
In our day, it takes the form of the worship of money or the worship of self. In either case, it is idolatry.
Stage Three
Family Decline: Men begin to sexually stray
The third stage involved a change in men's sexual values. Men who were preoccupied with business or war either neglected their wives sexually or became involved with lower-class women or with homosexuality. Ultimately, a double standard of morality developed.
Sin: Change the purpose of sex
Stage Four
Family Decline: Women revolt
The fourth stage affected women. The role of women at home and with children lost value and status. Women were neglected and their roles devalued. Soon they revolted to gain access to material wealth and also freedom for sex outside marriage. Women also began to minimize having sex relations to conceive children, and the emphasis became sex for pleasure. Marriage laws were changed to make divorce easy.
Sin: Change the nature of sex
Men and women exchange their natural use of sex for unnatural uses. Here the Apostle Paul says those four sobering words, "God gave them over." In a society where lust- driven sensuality and sexual perversion dominate, God gives them over to their degrading passions and unnatural desires.
Stage Five
Family Decline: Men and women compete
In the fifth stage, husbands and wives competed against each other for money, home leadership, and the affection of their children. This resulted in hostility and frustration and possible homosexuality in the children. Many marriages ended in separation and divorce.
Many children were unwanted, aborted, abandoned, molested, and undisciplined. The more undisciplined children became, the more social pressure there was not to have children. The breakdown of the home produced anarchy.
Sin: False philosophies developed to justify sin
When they are no longer looking to God for wisdom and guidance, they become vain and futile and empty in their imaginations. They no longer honor God, so their foolish hearts become darkened. In professing to be wise, they have become fools.
Stage Six
Family Decline: Selfish individualism
In the sixth stage, selfish individualism grew and carried over into society, fragmenting it into smaller and smaller group loyalties. The nation was thus weakened by internal conflict. The decrease in the birthrate produced an older population that had less ability to defend itself and less will to do so, making the nation more vulnerable to its enemies.
Sin: Anarchy
Once a society has rejected God's revelation, it is on its own. Moral and social anarchy is the natural result. At this point God has given the sinners over to a depraved mind and so they do things which are not proper. This results in a society which is without understanding, untrustworthy, unloving, and unmerciful.
Stage Seven
Family Decline: Family and nation collapses
Finally, unbelief in God became more complete, parental authority diminished, and ethical and moral principles disappeared, affecting the economy and government. Thus, by internal weakness and fragmentation the societies came apart. There was no way to save them except by a dictator who arose from within or by barbarians who invaded from without.
Although this is an ancient pattern of decline found in Greece and Rome, it is relevant today. Families are the foundation of a nation. When the family crumbles, the nation falls because nations are built upon family units. They are the true driving social force. A nation will not be strong unless the family is strong. That was true in the ancient world and it is true today.
Social commentator Michael Novak, writing on the importance of the family, said: “One unforgettable law has been learned through all the disasters and injustices of the last thousand years: If things go well with the family, life is worth living; when the family falters, life falls apart.”
Sin: Judgment
The final stage is judgment. God's judgment rightly falls upon those who practice idolatry and immorality. Certainly an eternal judgment awaits those who are guilty, but a social judgment occurs when God gives a nation over to its sinful practices.
Notice that this progression is not unique to the Hellenistic world the Apostle Paul was living in. The progression from idolatry to sexual perversion to anarchy to judgment is found throughout history.
In the times of Noah and Lot, there was the idolatry of greed, there was sexual perversion and promiscuity, there was anarchy and violence, and finally there was judgment. Throughout the history of the nation of Israel there was idolatry, sexual perversion, anarchy (in which each person did what was right in his own eyes), and finally judgment.
This progression happened throughout the Bible and to Greece, to Persia, to Babylon, and to Rome. And if it happened to these nations, then it can happen today. Unless we return to God's principles, decline and destruction are inevitable.
Family Decline: Men stop being spiritual leaders
Nations most often fall from within, and this fall is usually due to a decline in the moral and spiritual values in the family. As families go, so goes a nation.
In his book Our Dance Has Turned to Death, Carl Wilson identifies the common pattern of family decline in ancient Greece and the Roman Empire. Notice how these seven stages parallel what is happening in our nation today. In the first stage, men ceased to lead their families in worship. Spiritual and moral development became secondary. Their view of God became naturalistic, mathematical, and mechanical.
Sin: Ingratitude
The decline and fall of nations is usually due to internal factors rather than external threats. Even though some may have fallen to barbarians, their demise ultimately came because of moral and spiritual weakness which manifested itself as military weakness.
In the opening chapter of the Apostle Paul's letter to the church in Rome, he traces a similar progression. In fact, Romans 1 shows the decline of a civilization from a societal perspective. Looking at the Hellenistic world of his time, he reflects on the progression of sin in a nation.
The first stage is described as a general lack of thankfulness. Although they have been prospered by God, they are ungrateful.
Stage Two
Family Decline: Men selfishly neglect their families
In the second stage, men selfishly neglected care of their wives and children to pursue material wealth, political and military power, and cultural development. Material values began to dominate thought, and the man began to exalt his own role as an individual.
Sin: Turn to idolatry (wealth, pleasure, power, self)
In our day, it takes the form of the worship of money or the worship of self. In either case, it is idolatry.
Stage Three
Family Decline: Men begin to sexually stray
The third stage involved a change in men's sexual values. Men who were preoccupied with business or war either neglected their wives sexually or became involved with lower-class women or with homosexuality. Ultimately, a double standard of morality developed.
Sin: Change the purpose of sex
Stage Four
Family Decline: Women revolt
The fourth stage affected women. The role of women at home and with children lost value and status. Women were neglected and their roles devalued. Soon they revolted to gain access to material wealth and also freedom for sex outside marriage. Women also began to minimize having sex relations to conceive children, and the emphasis became sex for pleasure. Marriage laws were changed to make divorce easy.
Sin: Change the nature of sex
Men and women exchange their natural use of sex for unnatural uses. Here the Apostle Paul says those four sobering words, "God gave them over." In a society where lust- driven sensuality and sexual perversion dominate, God gives them over to their degrading passions and unnatural desires.
Stage Five
Family Decline: Men and women compete
In the fifth stage, husbands and wives competed against each other for money, home leadership, and the affection of their children. This resulted in hostility and frustration and possible homosexuality in the children. Many marriages ended in separation and divorce.
Many children were unwanted, aborted, abandoned, molested, and undisciplined. The more undisciplined children became, the more social pressure there was not to have children. The breakdown of the home produced anarchy.
Sin: False philosophies developed to justify sin
When they are no longer looking to God for wisdom and guidance, they become vain and futile and empty in their imaginations. They no longer honor God, so their foolish hearts become darkened. In professing to be wise, they have become fools.
Stage Six
Family Decline: Selfish individualism
In the sixth stage, selfish individualism grew and carried over into society, fragmenting it into smaller and smaller group loyalties. The nation was thus weakened by internal conflict. The decrease in the birthrate produced an older population that had less ability to defend itself and less will to do so, making the nation more vulnerable to its enemies.
Sin: Anarchy
Once a society has rejected God's revelation, it is on its own. Moral and social anarchy is the natural result. At this point God has given the sinners over to a depraved mind and so they do things which are not proper. This results in a society which is without understanding, untrustworthy, unloving, and unmerciful.
Stage Seven
Family Decline: Family and nation collapses
Finally, unbelief in God became more complete, parental authority diminished, and ethical and moral principles disappeared, affecting the economy and government. Thus, by internal weakness and fragmentation the societies came apart. There was no way to save them except by a dictator who arose from within or by barbarians who invaded from without.
Although this is an ancient pattern of decline found in Greece and Rome, it is relevant today. Families are the foundation of a nation. When the family crumbles, the nation falls because nations are built upon family units. They are the true driving social force. A nation will not be strong unless the family is strong. That was true in the ancient world and it is true today.
Social commentator Michael Novak, writing on the importance of the family, said: “One unforgettable law has been learned through all the disasters and injustices of the last thousand years: If things go well with the family, life is worth living; when the family falters, life falls apart.”
Sin: Judgment
The final stage is judgment. God's judgment rightly falls upon those who practice idolatry and immorality. Certainly an eternal judgment awaits those who are guilty, but a social judgment occurs when God gives a nation over to its sinful practices.
Notice that this progression is not unique to the Hellenistic world the Apostle Paul was living in. The progression from idolatry to sexual perversion to anarchy to judgment is found throughout history.
In the times of Noah and Lot, there was the idolatry of greed, there was sexual perversion and promiscuity, there was anarchy and violence, and finally there was judgment. Throughout the history of the nation of Israel there was idolatry, sexual perversion, anarchy (in which each person did what was right in his own eyes), and finally judgment.
This progression happened throughout the Bible and to Greece, to Persia, to Babylon, and to Rome. And if it happened to these nations, then it can happen today. Unless we return to God's principles, decline and destruction are inevitable.
Conclusion
Having said all this, do not think that I accept the Marxist notion that these are fixed and intractable laws of history.
In contrast to that deterministic view, in which a civilization is essentially doomed from the moment it comes into being, we believe that any civilization can survive indefinitely, just as long as it keeps reforming or circumventing its institutionalized instruments of expansion.
The message of the Scriptures is that not only do we exercise free will over our own spirits, free will applies equally to us as members of civilizations. If we act in one way, we return to expansion; if we voluntarily choose another way, we step onto the road that leads to empire and extinction. This is a non-deterministic "if-then-else" structure.
This is why Moses challenged us, crying out:
· Deuteronomy 30:16-20 HCSB For I am commanding you today to love the LORD your God, to walk in His ways, and to keep His commands, statutes, and ordinances, so that you may live and multiply, and the LORD your God may bless you in the land you are entering to possess. (17) But if your heart turns away and you do not listen and you are led astray to bow down to other gods and worship them, (18) I tell you today that you will certainly perish and will not live long in the land you are entering to possess across the Jordan. (19) I call heaven and earth as witnesses against you today that I have set before you life and death, blessing and curse. Choose life so that you and your descendants may live, (20) love the LORD your God, obey Him, and remain faithful to Him. For He is your life, and He will prolong your life in the land the LORD swore to give to your fathers Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob."
We can point to unusual times when revival has redirected the inexorable decline of a civilization. In the Old Covenant, Jonah saw revival postpone God's judgment of Nineveh. In the sixteenth century, Martin Luther and John Calvin saw a Protestant Reformation transform Europe. Even in the history of the United States the First and Second Great Awakenings changed individuals and our society.
The fact remains however, that apart from God's intervention nations will decline and eventually pass off the scene. Much of the Old Covenant records the history of the nation of Israel. It passed through these same stages and so will every country in the world.
Adonaists simply recognize that nations will rise and fall just as individuals will be born and die. Our host nation’s civilization will not last indefinitely, but will eventually pass off the scene. Only God's Word endures forever. We should not put our trust in the things of this world for they are destined for destruction. Instead, we should put our faith in God and His word.
How should we react to applying these historical insights? We have to redouble our efforts to warn the world’s nations (Matthew 24:14), and especially those largely inhabited by the descendants of the tribe of Joseph (cf. Ezekiel 33:1-9), about their fate if they don’t repent. We also have to avoid letting our own patriotism blind us to how much displeasure God has in our nations’ sins and how they will be punished in years to come. By knowing history better, we can project our likely national futures better and prepare appropriately.
As the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill observed,
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
In contrast to that deterministic view, in which a civilization is essentially doomed from the moment it comes into being, we believe that any civilization can survive indefinitely, just as long as it keeps reforming or circumventing its institutionalized instruments of expansion.
The message of the Scriptures is that not only do we exercise free will over our own spirits, free will applies equally to us as members of civilizations. If we act in one way, we return to expansion; if we voluntarily choose another way, we step onto the road that leads to empire and extinction. This is a non-deterministic "if-then-else" structure.
This is why Moses challenged us, crying out:
· Deuteronomy 30:16-20 HCSB For I am commanding you today to love the LORD your God, to walk in His ways, and to keep His commands, statutes, and ordinances, so that you may live and multiply, and the LORD your God may bless you in the land you are entering to possess. (17) But if your heart turns away and you do not listen and you are led astray to bow down to other gods and worship them, (18) I tell you today that you will certainly perish and will not live long in the land you are entering to possess across the Jordan. (19) I call heaven and earth as witnesses against you today that I have set before you life and death, blessing and curse. Choose life so that you and your descendants may live, (20) love the LORD your God, obey Him, and remain faithful to Him. For He is your life, and He will prolong your life in the land the LORD swore to give to your fathers Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob."
We can point to unusual times when revival has redirected the inexorable decline of a civilization. In the Old Covenant, Jonah saw revival postpone God's judgment of Nineveh. In the sixteenth century, Martin Luther and John Calvin saw a Protestant Reformation transform Europe. Even in the history of the United States the First and Second Great Awakenings changed individuals and our society.
The fact remains however, that apart from God's intervention nations will decline and eventually pass off the scene. Much of the Old Covenant records the history of the nation of Israel. It passed through these same stages and so will every country in the world.
Adonaists simply recognize that nations will rise and fall just as individuals will be born and die. Our host nation’s civilization will not last indefinitely, but will eventually pass off the scene. Only God's Word endures forever. We should not put our trust in the things of this world for they are destined for destruction. Instead, we should put our faith in God and His word.
How should we react to applying these historical insights? We have to redouble our efforts to warn the world’s nations (Matthew 24:14), and especially those largely inhabited by the descendants of the tribe of Joseph (cf. Ezekiel 33:1-9), about their fate if they don’t repent. We also have to avoid letting our own patriotism blind us to how much displeasure God has in our nations’ sins and how they will be punished in years to come. By knowing history better, we can project our likely national futures better and prepare appropriately.
As the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill observed,
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
